Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.550316 0.636486 0.730876 0.841831 0.968572 1.108712 1.275299
2025-06-08 0.389809 0.502472 0.638735 0.815140 1.036906 1.305856 1.656134
2025-06-15 0.331207 0.461465 0.630539 0.864876 1.179903 1.587228 2.152100
2025-06-22 0.266549 0.396609 0.575756 0.838617 1.212195 1.721375 2.464720
2025-06-29 0.219667 0.346343 0.530165 0.813635 1.236401 1.839404 2.759356
2025-07-06 0.184993 0.307407 0.493612 0.793885 1.261431 1.955799 3.057258
2025-07-13 0.165621 0.288523 0.483525 0.810771 1.340173 2.154953 3.492507
2025-07-20 0.154439 0.280870 0.489303 0.851930 1.459109 2.423963 4.057151
2025-07-27 0.142114 0.269282 0.486709 0.878123 1.555137 2.663787 4.595017
2025-08-03 0.128686 0.253708 0.475108 0.886966 1.621826 2.860185 5.077026
2025-08-10 0.115315 0.236271 0.457875 0.883360 1.665537 3.020285 5.509459
2025-08-17 0.102812 0.218694 0.438114 0.872491 1.694305 3.155682 5.908550
2025-08-24 0.092027 0.203302 0.421112 0.865744 1.731507 3.311992 6.363962
2025-08-31 0.080186 0.184120 0.394560 0.837744 1.726156 3.391480 6.688420
2025-09-07 0.077840 0.184699 0.407347 0.888743 1.877672 3.773043 7.604520
2025-09-14 0.068397 0.168334 0.383290 0.861797 1.871719 3.855209 7.957711
2025-09-21 0.060280 0.153761 0.361173 0.836163 1.865281 3.934804 8.310861
2025-09-28 0.053589 0.141529 0.342611 0.815896 1.867537 4.030900 8.703257
2025-10-05 0.050339 0.137175 0.341166 0.833224 1.951491 4.298860 9.464847
2025-10-12 0.049000 0.137412 0.350306 0.875457 2.093656 4.698119 10.528384
2025-10-19 0.046741 0.134955 0.352762 0.902333 2.203819 5.038181 11.492604
2025-10-26 0.043623 0.129768 0.347978 0.911406 2.274036 5.297588 12.303057
2025-11-02 0.040114 0.122990 0.338412 0.907706 2.313889 5.493119 12.987948